The Perils of Probabilities

Year Published:  1979
Pages:  17   Resource Type:  Article
Cx Number:  CX997

A list of issues with report 1149 of the Atomic Energy Control Board regarding safety and liscencing of nuclear energy stations.

Abstract: 
The Atomic Energy Control Board's (AECB) report, #1149, is the subject of this brief to the AECB. The report of the Inter-Organizational Working Group (IOWG) is titled "Proposed Safety Requirements for Licensing of Nuclear Power Plants".

Rubin raises two central questions: the first concerns safety, the second concerns the need for de-licensing.

The question of safety deals with the notion of "risks". The AECB defines "risk" in terms of mathematical probabilities, a manner totally different from that of the public or nuclear critics. Both parties consider "risk" to be concerned with the possibilities of a nuclear accident and the consequent dangers to human lives. The AECB is concerned with the mathematical probability of the failure of safety systems in a reactor and the release of radioactive material into the environment. Nuclear critics are concerned with any possibility
of the releases of radioactive material into the environment. "Risk" is dependent on the release of even the smallest amount of radiation, and not simply the lowest probable amount. Rubin concludes tha the AECB must answer to this understanding to benefit of public safety. Report 1149 must be rewritten to tighten safety measures.

The second issue raised is the whole matter of licensing. Rubin argues that energy consumption must not increase and new, safer energy sources must be found. These two factors lead him to say that the AECB should refuse to license new nuclear stations and, in fact, should de-license the older, less safe stations.