Mugabe in control

Details of the compromise agreement between Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have finally emerged. Also, the stepping down of South African President Thabo Mbeki who helped negotiate it sheds light on the connection between the two countries.

In the new agreement between Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the MDC, Tsvangirai becomes Prime Minister, in appearance sharing executive authority with Mugabe. He will chair a council of ministers, while Mugabe will chair the cabinet. Two deputy prime ministers will balance the two current deputy presidents. In 18 months there is supposed to be a referendum on a new Constitution for Zimbabwe, overseen by a committee of Parliament.

But beyond the eerie symmetry, Mugabe still retains the lion's share of power. He will make most important decisions, subject to "consultation" with Tsvangirai, but not to veto by him.

Most importantly, the deal takes no note of the demands of the "day-to-day struggle of ordinary Zimbabweans" (see Freedom in a fortnight? A view from the trenches in Zimbabwe, News & Letters, Aug.-Sept. 2008). The compromise agreement is opposed by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) and many civil society organizations.

It will be interesting to see how the resignation of President Mbeki will affect the new situation. His support of Mugabe had highlighted tensions within the African National Congress' (ANC) ruling coalition, with the South African Communist Party (SACP) recommending Mbeki's recall along with a greater accountability of the ANC's leadership. The SACP also opposes the compromise agreement with Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions came into conflict with Mbeki over its support for the ZCTU. This ambivalence will be tested under the ANC leadership of Jacob Zuma, who has expressed various attitudes toward Mugabe in the past.

When asked what could be expected from Zuma at home, South African activist and poet Dennis Brutus had this to say: Zuma "went to Davos, the World Economic Forum, [and] met with Merrill Lynch and said, 'Don't worry, the economic policies that Mbeki adopted, I'm going to continue those policies.' So, in fact, there will be a continuity on the economic level, even while people are arguing that the corporations should not be given priority. The jobs and housing, people living in the shacks and in the shanties, as they were under apartheid, still living under the same conditions."

Beyond any ruler's ambivalence, it is the masses of Southern Africa who must be heard right now.

--Gerry Emmett

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