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NEWS & LETTERS, December 2007 - January 2008LeadChallenge to Musharraf's dictatorship in PakistanBy Kevin Michaels Pakistan is deeply embroiled in an intense political crisis that has roots in events that took place well before the September 11, 2001 attacks forced the country into the center of world attention. Bush ally Pervez Musharraf--who seized power from a democratically elected government in a 1999 military coup--has imposed a state of emergency throughout Pakistan, suppressed the country's media and jailed unknown numbers of activists, lawyers and ordinary people opposed to his autocratic rule. As Musharraf's most prominent opponents race from compromise to compromise in efforts to secure power for themselves, and the U.S. government mulls whether to abandon the general or to remain his chief bulwark, the people of Pakistan look warily to an uncertain future. While Musharraf seems to have gambled successfully on his ability to weather the mass indignation resulting from his declaring emergency rule, his political prospects are far from certain. CHALLENGE FROM BELOW Musharraf's resort to martial law was precipitated by a serious challenge to his monopolization of political power. His removal from office of Iftikhar Chaudhry, chief justice of Pakistan's supreme court and critic of Musharraf's tactics, led to an outburst of support on the part of lawyers and democracy activists. The "Lawyers' Movement," as the upsurge came to be known, provided a grassroots means of expression for those fatigued with Musharraf's authoritarianism. Chaudhry quickly became seen as a potential rival to Musharraf and the vibrant movement supporting him, while based in Pakistan's educated middle class, broke the ice on expressions of political dissent. This new mobilization joins Pakistan's well-organized women's movement in a new and independent challenge from civil society to a state dominated by wealthy landowners and those made rich and powerful by recent years of privatization of state industries. In this political unrest, Pakistan's two still-powerful political exiles, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif--the target of Musharraf ‘s 1999 coup--sensed an opportunity to return to power and began making plans for their respective returns. Bhutto, the daughter of Pakistani nationalist politician Zulfikar Ali Bhutto--executed by Islamist general Zia ul Haq in 1979--has twice served as prime minister. She met her downfall through charges of corruption and was forced to bide her time in London and the Persian Gulf states. The deposed Sharif, a more conservative and religious figure than Bhutto, is also shrouded in charges of corruption and was living his political exile in Saudi Arabia. Sharif was the first to attempt to return. Thwarted on his initial attempt, he made a second and successful try on Nov. 25 after Musharraf failed in aN in-person attempt to convince the Saudi monarchy to discourAge Sharif from leaving exile. Bhutto returned to much fanfare in October. The political party founded by her father which she now leads, the Pakistan People's Party, organized a large rally for her arrival in Lahore. While nowhere near as large as her claim, the substantial turnout showed that she does have support. The fact that the rally was attacked by several suicide bombers indicates that she is perceived as a threat, by the government, radical Islamists, or both. Hovering over Bhutto however, is a cloud of suspicion about her motives and tactics. Her return was a highly negotiated affair, involving intense pressure on Musharraf from the U.S. government. An understanding had been reached in which Bhutto was going to once again assume the office of prime minister, in effect providing a democratic veneer to Musharraf's unconstitutional presidency. This backroom deal fell through somehow. Some anticipated that Bhutto would call for mass demonstrations to seize the political initiative. These protests did not materialize, however. Both Bhutto and Sharif now appear to be biding their time, crafting a response to Musharraf's declaration that parliamentary elections are now going to be held in January, albeit under the emergency conditions currently in place. Both have registered to run in the elections, while insisting that they have done so only as a formality and will instead boycott them. In reality, they are keeping their options open. GenerAl Musharraf announced on Nov. 28 that he was resigning from the army to serve as a civilian president. He did not acknowledge the enormous pressure placed on him to do so by the U.S., which included a visit by John Negroponte, the number two person at the State Department. PAKISTAN'S TROUBLED PATH Pakistan has had a troubled history since the birth of the country at the partition of British India in 1947. Most of the country's population has lived in poverty and illiteracy as the members of Pakistan's rulers--the generals, wealthy landowners and industrialists--have looked after their own narrow interests. Conflicts between Pakistan's many ethnic groups--Punjabis, Pushtuns, Baluchis and others--have often resulted in difficulties as well. The country was even split in two when what was formerly known as East Pakistan rebelled against the dominance of the central government in 1971 and emerged as Bangladesh. These currents and the long military struggle Pakistan has pursued with India over the disputed territory Kashmir have contributed to the army and the powerful intelligence service taking for themselves a prominent role in political life. Pakistan's support for the mujahadeen in the guerrilla war against the USSR in Afghanistan in the 1980s only served to exacerbate this trend. Radical Islam has been a powerful tool in the hands of the intelligence service and military in pursuit of their aims. While it would be mistaken to say that militant Islamists are without support in socially conservative Pakistan, they lack the popular base that is present in other parts of the Muslim world, such as North Africa and Gaza. The Taliban, for example, were cultivated by Pakistan as a regional solution to the chaotic political situation following the USSR's withdrawal from Afghanistan. The details of the Taliban's harboring of Osama bin Laden are all too familiar to the world now. AN UNEASY RELATIONSHIP The U.S. is locked into an ironic relationship with Pakistan. The Pakistani state under Musharraf--an open patron of militant jihadists in Kashmir--is among George Bush's chief allies in his self-proclaimed war on terror. Bush, a great rhetorician of democracy and its benefits, somehow fits the coup leader Musharraf into his world view, in the desperate hope that the recently retired general can keep the Islamists on a short leash while maintaining firm control of the country's nuclear weapons. The billions in military and financial aid the U.S. has dispensed to Pakistan since September 2001--when then-State Department official Richard Armitage is said to have warned that unless it cooperated, the U.S. would bomb Pakistan "back to the stone age"--gives it enormous leverage over events in the country. Until now the Bush administration has stubbornly backed Musharraf. The U.S. may now be willing to countenance a replacement for the former general because of a diminishing ability to fulfill his expectations. The restive Northwest Frontier province, a tribal area historically controlled by the central government in name only, is becoming increasingly out of control. The militants there are intensely fundamentalist and widely assumed to be sheltering bin Laden and the surviving Al Queda leaders. They also routinely rout the Pakistani army. A related jihadist insurgency is also gaining success in Swat, an area distant from the traditionally rebellious area of the border with Afghanistan, leading to increasing discussion of the "Talibanization" of Pakistan. These setbacks, taken together with both the domestic and international repugnance at Musharraf's actions, may have finally tipped the balance against him. Much is uncertain about Pakistan's future. Musharraf may cohabit as unelected president with one of his bitter political enemies as prime minister. The new Pakistani democracy movement may widen to include the masses of peasants and workers. And the fundamentalist insurgency may succeed in furthering the Islamicization of the country. These and other unknowns demand that we keep our eyes on South Asia and look for opportunities to express our solidarity with those struggling there for democracy, and revolts of women, peasants and workers. |
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