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NEWS & LETTERS, February - March 2007EditorialBush’s surge forces Iraq to the precipiceThe plan George Bush announced in his highly anticipated speech of Jan. 10 was a massive rejection of the accumulating domestic criticism of the Iraq war. The President has in effect turned a blind eye to both the defeats meted out to Republican Party candidates in the midterm election and the moderate recommendations contained in the recently-released Iraq Study Group report on the war. Instead, he re-committed himself to pressing on with a war that has wreaked havoc on every level of Iraqi society with a plan that threatens to intensify the conflict and perhaps even drive a wedge between the U.S. and the Iraqi government. In all actuality, Bush’s plan contains little that is new. The most attention-grabbing element of the speech was the announcement of his intention to once again attempt to regain control of Baghdad, this time with a commitment of an additional 20,000 U.S. troops. Previous efforts to pacify Baghdad in cooperation with Iraq’s small and undependable army were unsuccessful. Outside of the Green Zone, the capital city’s streets remain controlled by sectarian militias and criminal gangs. The primary objective of the U.S. campaign in Baghdad will be the Madhi Army, the large militia of the influential Sh'ite cleric and politician Moktada Sadr. Moktada--a harsh critic of the U.S.--is engaged in a dual strategy. He has one foot in the government, in which his party is represented and which has lent much-needed support to the politically weak prime minister Nuri al-Maliki. The other aspect of his strategy is one of strident opposition to the U.S., which manifests itself both in his rhetoric and the actions of his militia. While Moktada may be wise enough to order his fighters not to directly confront the impending increased American presence in Baghdad, the potential exists for conflict that may spiral out of control. CONFRONTATION WITH IRAN Another element of the speech which represents equal potential for great impact is the announcement of a policy of active opposition to Iran’s substantial influence inside Iraq. Bush claims that Iran is covertly supplying arms and training to militias carrying out attacks on U.S. forces. While this accusation is in all likelihood accurate, Iran at the same time openly supports the Sh'ite-Kurdish alliance that makes up Iraq’s government. By antagonizing Iran’s aims in Iraq, Bush risks estranging the very Iraqi government that he has enabled to come to power and has heretofore supported. A rift with the Sh'ite and Kurdish parties--over the Iran issue and the issue of the rules under with the new troops will be deployed in Baghdad--would open up an entirely new level of difficulties for the U.S. in Iraq and could make Bush’s whole endeavor untenable. The magnitude of this risk was in evidence shortly after Bush finished his speech. In a move that was undoubtedly carefully planned to send a strong message, U.S. soldiers entered an Iranian government consulate in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Erbil and arrested the personnel inside. This led to a enormously dangerous situation in which Kurdish soldiers confronted the U.S. troops and prevented them from leaving the area. It took immediate and high-level negotiations between Kurdish political leaders and the U.S. to end the standoff, although the Iranians have yet to be released. This event, which is at least the second of such confrontations to have taken place recently, may foreshadow other serious conflicts to come. OPPOSITION AT HOME While reaction to Bush’s speech at home was overwhelmingly negative, it appears that nothing will stand in the way of him carrying out his plan. The high expectations raised by the Democratic Party victories in the midterm election are diminishing as it becomes clear that the new majority may simply accede to Bush’s wishes and refrain from mounting a serious opposition by voting against funds for the war. Instead of opposing the war, Democratic Senator Dick Durbin’s official response to Bush’s speech blamed the Iraqi government for all the problems the U.S. has brought upon the country. While the war has had little direct impact on the lives of most Americans up to this point, Bush’s plan will increase the stress on the already hard-pressed reserve and National Guard forces that make up much of the U.S. force in Iraq, subjecting them to even looser deployment guidelines than already in place. The economic and psychological impact of the long tours of duty for both the reserve and regular army troops will not make the war any more popular. The number of U.S. fatalities has already surpassed the 3,000 mark and the pace of debilitating injuries inflicted on soldiers by roadside bombs and sniper attacks continues unabated. It may not be long before maintaining the U.S. troop commitment becomes a serious challenge. Large numbers of Americans have opposed the Iraq war from the moment it became clear that Bush was intent on invading the country, regardless of either domestic or international opinion. For much of the almost four years of the year, Bush was able to prevail against his critics because of the relatively limited character of the U.S. commitment and, more importantly, through his and Dick Cheney’s persistent and deceptive characterization of the conflict as part of his war on terror. Those days are over however, as opposition to the war is becoming more open and more mainstream. If parts of American society that have not previously participated in the anti-war movement in large numbers, such as Black Americans and other working people now become involved, the room for Bush to maneuver will be significantly narrowed. As the anti-war movement prepares for the fourth anniversary of the war in March of this year, drawing these new elements into active participation will help to build a serious challenge to Bush and his war administration. |
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