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NEWS & LETTERS, April - May 2007EditorialFifth year of bloody Iraq warThe fourth anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq has come and gone with still no end in sight to the disastrous conflict. The war and the sectarian conflict it precipitated have devastated Iraqi society and opened up a dangerous new theater of confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. While George Bush and Dick Cheney stubbornly press on with the conflict, serious problems have arisen at home that even they may not be able to ignore. Chief among these problems is the Veterans Administration Hospital scandal. Reporters at the WASHINGTON POST dramatically exposed deplorable conditions in the living quarters of grievously wounded soldiers at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., the military's flagship hospital. In addition, the bureaucratic and adversarial labyrinth that confronts veterans throughout the system has been detailed and condemned by spouses and family members of soldiers in testimony before a Senate panel. The Walter Reed scandal and the condemnation of the entire Veterans Administration it represents challenges George Bush with his biggest domestic setback since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Another new development is a small but significant expression of open opposition from within the U.S. military itself. Almost 2,000 service men and women have signed an Appeal for Redress to Congress that calls for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq, citing the number of U.S. fatalities and the impact on the Iraqi people as motivating reasons. Bush and his generals are struggling to maintain the numbers of troops necessary for continuing the war. The National Guard and reserve forces are being taxed like never before and reports of widespread depression, substance abuse and sexual harassment of women soldiers point toward serious problems within the armed forces. Taken together with the recent conviction of Dick Cheney's aide, Scooter Libby, on charges of perjury in the Valerie Plame leak trial, a case directly linked to the cloud of deception surrounding the run-up to the Iraq war, the Bush administration faces a situation in which its room to maneuver is significantly diminishing. ON THE GROUND In addition to Bush's problems at home, the reality on the ground in Iraq offers him no comfort either. The threefold nature of this complex conflict is now starkly evident. The first element is the war between the U.S. and the Sunni-based insurgent groups. The second is the intense sectarian strife in which the extreme Islamist Sunni groups carry out indiscriminate massacres of Shi'as and the latter group violently retaliates with its own militia groups and the means afforded to it through its position of strength within the Iraqi government. The third and most recent element to emerge is the struggle being conducted within Iraq between the U.S. and Iranian influence on both the Shi'a militias and the Iraqi government itself. The U.S. war against the Sunni insurgent groups is not making any headway. Several recent instances in which insurgents on the ground succeeded in shooting down American helicopters indicates that their tactical sophistication is increasing. If the insurgents can threaten the air supremacy of the U.S. in addition to their successes in making overland travel dangerous through the use of roadside bombs, they will have presented the U.S. with a new and serious challenge. The second aspect of the war continues apace as well. Shi'a pilgrims traveling to the city of Karbala for a recent religious holiday were mercilessly targeted with suicide bombings and sniper attacks. Many Shiites are deeply resentful that the U.S. is trying to curb their sectarian militias, which are increasingly looked to as protectors in the absence of a reliable police force that can prevent the incessant attacks. ESCALATION OF SURGE PLAN The war's third aspect represents the potential for an enormous escalation of the conflict. Bush's surge plan was directed as much at the Shi'a militias and Iranian influence as it was the Sunni insurgency. The Shi'a militias in Baghdad, including Moktada al-Sadr's Madhi Army, appear to have chosen not to confront the increased number of troops sent into the areas they control and to instead bide their time until a changed opportunity presents itself. This aspect of the war is risky for the U.S. because of the close ties between much of the Iraqi government and the Iranians. If the U.S. pushes too hard against Iranian influence, the Iraqi government may cease to be as cooperative as it has been, opening new layers of difficulty for the U.S. That government continues to be fragile at best, with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki constantly faced with challenges to his coalition. The most recent threat to the slim majority of his supporters in parliament was the withdrawal of a small Shi'ite party. If Moktada al-Sadr's supporters cease their support of Maliki as well, a political crisis would ensue. All of these elements add up to a society pervaded from top to bottom with fear and hopelessness. The level of unemployment in Iraq is massive. A whole generation of young people is growing up solely within the walls of their own homes because of the threat of sectarian violence or kidnapping on the street. VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN Women are finding themselves confined as well because of the level of violent crime and the increasing dominance of religious conservatism in Iraqi society. Hundreds of thousands of people have been forced from their homes by sectarian threats or the fear of violence. On top of those numbers, hundreds of thousands have fled the country entirely to eke out a precarious living in exile in Jordan or Syria. This is the legacy the U.S. intervention leaves to Iraq and the future of its people. The protests marking the fourth anniversary of the war show that open opposition to Bush's war persists. But equally important is the passive opposition of the far greater numbers of those who have tired of the Bush administration's stonewalling on the prosecution of the war. While Congressional opposition to the war has failed to meet the expectations of many in the wake of last November's elections, Bush's new setbacks may contribute to new waves of people joining those openly opposing the war and further diminish the administration's ability to carry out its open-ended aims in Iraq. |
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